Future Generator: Positive UK media coverage will continue for the next two weeks
The ‘Future Generator’ is a highly unique and cutting-edge approach to forecasting ‘media sentiment’, developed by a partnership between Global Risk Insights (GRI) and Ethnographic Edge (EE). The aim of the forecast is to determine how media sentiment towards a country’s political environment might develop in the future. Considering the impact of media sentiment on trading and investments, our forecasts will give readers more time and context to maximize on market opportunities.
The following is a Future Generator assessment of the United Kingdom.
The EE signal suggests positive media sentiment towards the UK’s political climate
EE’s data analytics platform projects that media sentiment towards the UK will remain positive over the next two weeks. Considering the strong correlation between media sentiment and political events, EE concludes that the British political environment will stabilise in the month of January.
GRI Assessment of the EE Signal
GRI’s team of directors and our UK expert have assessed this signal provided by EE. Based on local expertise and political risk training, we agree with the data analytics produced that the UK will continue to experience positive media coverage until at least January 21. This is most likely due to increased confidence ahead of the UK Supreme Court’s ruling on Parliament’s role in Brexit negotiations.
The Supreme Court is expected to confirm this month whether an act of Parliament is needed to trigger Article 50 – the formal series of negotiations by which the UK must leave the European Union (EU). Despite Prime Minister Theresa May’s appeal of a November 2016 High Court ruling on the same subject, many legal scholars expect the Supreme Court to confirm it.
This ruling’s result will have a profound impact on British politics in 2017. Ever since the UK’s unprecedented vote to leave the EU on June 23rd, 2016, specifics about what “Brexit” means have been absent. But rhetoric from May has suggested that she would like to steer the UK towards a “hard Brexit”. This would see the UK lose its membership in the EU’s Single Market – the world’s largest trading bloc – in exchange for immigration control.
The European Council confirmed last month that the 27 EU member states are ready to start negotiations with the UK. They also reiterated that the UK’s membership in the EU Single Market is contingent upon continuous acceptance of the EU’s “four freedoms”: the free movement of goods, capital, services, and people throughout all countries in the EU. This is in line with public sentiment towards the terms of Brexit.
Several post-Brexit surveys confirmed that most Britons prioritise Single Market membership over immigration control, regardless of whether they voted to leave. This data makes the case for a “liberal Leave” approach to negotiations. If the UK Supreme Court rules that members of Parliament can vote on the terms of Brexit negotiations, then this liberal Leave approach is more likely to become reality.