Weekly Risk Outlook

Weekly Risk Outlook
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Trade ministers join TPP negotiations. UN General assembly continues. US government faces another shutdown. US labor report influences rate hikes. Turkey hosts G20 meeting on energy. All in the Weekly Risk Outlook.

 

Senior officials meet for Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations

Senior trade officials will kick-off a meeting in Atlanta next week in what will be an attempt to finish the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Similar high-level discussions were held two months ago but ended without a finalized deal with talks breaking down over automotive, dairy, and next generation pharmaceuticals.

While top officials met over the weekend, trade ministers from all twelve countries are expected to join the negotiations on Wednesday.

 

Seventieth session of the UN General Assembly Continues

The General Assembly will continue into next week with several heads of states scheduled to address the annual meeting.

Among them is President Xi Jinping who will be continuing his US tour up to New York and will address the assembly.

Both President Xi and President Obama are among the leaders addressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit, the organization focused on fighting climate change, fighting diseases, and access to clean water.

President Obama is also expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the “sidelines” while in New York for the session.

 

US Government faces another potential shutdown

Wednesday will be the last opportunity for the US Congress to pass a continuing resolution in both chambers to avoid a government-wide shutdown.

In recent months, the issue of funding the women’s health organization Planned Parenthood has been the target of harsh scrutiny by Republicans with more than forty Republicans insisting on defunding the organization altogether.

All this comes on the coattails of the sudden announcement that Speaker John Boehner will tender his resignation at the end of October.

The last Government shutdown was in October of 2013 for sixteen days and over 800,000 federal workers were furloughed.

 

US labor report will influence interest rate hikes

On Friday, the Department of Labor will be announcing the US labor statistics for the month of September.

Many economists forecast that employers in the US added more jobs in September than in previous months, but expect the unemployment level to hold steady at 5.1%.

These results will have a huge impact on the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in the coming months.

Although many speculated a rate hike in the month of September, Fed Chair Janet Yellan decided to postpone the “lift off” due to uncertainties in the global economy.

 

Turkey hosts G20 member states meeting on energy

Turkey will host a meeting of the G20 countries and their energy ministers in Istanbul as part of an attempt to determine energy cooperation principles.

The meeting will include discussions on the availability of energy, investments in the energy sector, and the current state of the market overall.

This year’s volatile oil market will inevitably come up in discussion, but the focus of the meeting will be on energy efficiency and development of renewable sources.

 

The GRI Weekly Risk Outlook (WRO) provides analytical foresight on the economic consequences of upcoming political developments. Covering a number of future occurrences across the globe, the WRO presents a series of potential upside/downside risks, shedding light on how political decisions affect economic outcomes.

The Weekly Risk Outlook was produced by GRI analyst Sam Cho.

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